I think it unlikely that Geneva III will get very far mainly because the Iran deal is not signed and sealed. We need to see what happens in Congress. But I do see a negotiated settlement with a longish period of transition, if the UN Special Envoy can get Security Council backing for that. Recent polls in Syria show that nearly 60% of the population prefers – even today – a negotiated settlement and transition between the Asad inner circle and more enlightened Ba’thists leading up to more political parties [ not just Islamists] taking part in governance over time.
Dr. Dawn Chatty is Professor of Anthropology and Forced Migration and former Director of the Refugee Studies Centre, 2011-2014